December 2009 Auto Sales by the Numbers

NOVEMBER U.S. AUTO SALES

U.S. auto sales increased by less than 1 percent in November for the industry's first year-over-year gain without government incentives since October 2007.

The slight sales increase -- 35 units -- accompanied a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 10.5 million units, in line with the industry's “new normal” after a four-year decline and this summer's cash-for-clunkers incentive.

“Stability is good," said Jessica Caldwell, an analyst with consumer auto site Edmunds.com. "We'd like to see some growth, but I think most automakers right now would take stability.”

U.S. light-vehicle sales averaged 16.4 million units annually this decade through last year. In an accelerated decline, sales fell to 13.2 million units last year, reaching quarter-century lows by November 2008. That means today's comparisons are being measured against the worst November in decades.

October's 11.2 million SAAR reflected the first month this year in which seasonally adjusted demand passed 10 million units, not including the July and August boosts from the federal government's cash-for-clunkers program. August's U.S. sales increased 1 percent.

Along with the industrywide gain, Ford Motor Co.'s sales climbed less than 1 percent, the automaker's fourth gain in five months. Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A.'s 3 percent advance marked the automaker's third increase in four months.

Hyundai-Kia climbed 34 percent as sales of the Hyundai Accent and Elantra nearly doubled. Nissan North America shot up 21 percent, for its largest gain since June 2007. American Honda sales fell 3 percent, and General Motors Co.'s dropped 2 percent. Chrysler plunged 25 percent.

Production boosts

Low sales this year stifled first-half production, but automakers today signaled a thaw next year.

Ford said it would build 550,000 vehicles in North America during the first quarter of 2010, a 58 percent increase from the depressed first three months of this year. GM forecast production of 650,000 vehicles in the first quarter, a 75 percent increase.

Despite stabilizing sales, Subaru and Hyundai-Kia are the only automakers posting year-to-date advances. Subaru's sales swelled 24 percent for its sixth straight increase. The Japanese brand already has outsold its total for all of last year.

Today Subaru predicted it would set a U.S. sales record this year, beating the 200,703 vehicles sold of 2006. In November Subaru benefited from its Legacy sedan, whose sales soared 83 percent, and Outback wagon, which shot up 142 percent.

Fleet returns

Nissan, Hyundai and Detroit automakers seem to have drawn some of their strength from fleet sales, said Jeff Schuster, an analyst with market research firm J.D. Power and Associates, although he could not give firm numbers today.

“We had them up just slightly on the retail side, so that to me suggests that it was a pretty strong fleet push,” Schuster said of Nissan.

But the industrywide increase in fleet sales isn't a bad sign, he said.

“We've just been used to some historically low fleet levels this year,” he said. “Inventory is not out of control, so it's not necessarily that we have to move a lot of product into fleet.”

As of Nov. 1, the industry had a 63-day supply of vehicles.

Inventories are also light on 2009 models compared with last year's level of 2008s, Schuster said. Through the first three weeks of November, 26 percent of U.S. inventory was 2009 models, compared with 45 percent of 2008s at that time last year, he said.

Closer to normal

Daimler AG's sales increased 9 percent despite being dragged down by a 66 percent plunge in sales of its Smart minicar brand. BMW Group slid 8 percent, partly because of a 44 percent tumble in sales of its Mini brand.

“November was a peculiar month as we saw fewer consumers shopping for small, fuel-efficient vehicles,” Mini USA Vice President Jim McDowell said in a statement.

But “peculiar” is actually a return to more normal buying patterns, as consumers renew their interest in trucks, Schuster said.

“We've seen that expand each week” in November, he said. “November tends to be a pretty heavy truck month, so that is normal”

Analyst Caldwell said some of the interest may have stemmed from incentives related to truck month extensions from October.

“I wouldn't say it's gone to fever pitch,” she said of demand for less fuel-efficient vehicles.

SOURCE: [ Automotive News ]

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